Owning an ice cream shop sounds like a dream. After all, you get to serve up sweet treats and even sweeter memories all day long. But behind the waffle cones and sprinkles, it’s still a business that needs to be profitable to succeed.
Knowing what kind of revenue to expect (and what it takes to get there) can help you make better business decisions. Let’s take a look at how much ice cream shops typically earn, what factors affect your bottom line, how to forecast your monthly sales, and which types of ice cream shops bring in the most money.
How much profit do ice cream shops potentially make?
Running a typical ice cream shop business can bring in $200,000 to $500,000 annually, depending on your size and location. That breaks down to around $16,000 to $42,000 per month.
On a day‑to‑day level, many ice cream shops serve 100 to 300 customers at an average ticket of $5. If your shop averages 200 orders a day, you’re looking at $1,000 daily or about $30,000 a month in revenue. With a 20% net profit margin, that would leave you with $6,000 in profit each month.
It’s important to note that these aren’t guarantees, but business estimates that vary widely based on factors like how many competitors are in your area and how well you market your brand.
Seasonal demand also matters a lot for your ice cream shop’s bottom line. In fact, summer months can drive revenue up to 40%, with most shops earning the bulk of their sales from May through August.
On the other hand, revenue may drop around 30% during winter, when people are less inclined to eat cold treats. To put this in perspective, an ice cream shop business that averages $30,000 in July might only pull in $21,000 or even less in December.
To offset those slow winter months, plan a winter menu with hot desserts. Consider affogatos, hot chocolate floats, or seasonal sundaes to keep customers coming in.
You can also offer take‑home pints or online delivery so customers can still buy your products even when it’s chilly outside. A small ice cream shop that sells 50 pints a week at $10 each will add an extra $500 in revenue, helping smooth out slower months.
Factors that affect ice cream shop profitability
Ice cream shop profitability depends largely on location, seasonality, and your product and pricing strategy. Understanding these factors can help you boost revenue and manage your business more effectively.
Location
A prime high‑traffic spot, like downtown strips, busy malls, or popular foodie districts, can boost your ice cream shop’s revenue by drawing steady foot traffic. But higher traffic comes with higher costs.
Rent in busy areas can take up 9% to 15% of your revenue, while suburban or neighborhood locations cost less. Ideally, you want the rent percentage for your ice cream shop to be around 5% to 8%.
Higher rent can be worth it if your location brings in enough customers to cover the cost and boost profits. For instance, an ice cream parlor next to a city playground might pay $5,000 monthly rent but serve 250 customers a day at $5 each, grossing $37,500 per month.
Compare that with a quieter suburban spot charging $2,000 rent and serving 100 customers daily, or $15,000 monthly revenue. Sometimes, a slightly pricier location with high visibility and steady customer movement can generate more revenue than a cheaper spot with minimal traffic.
Seasonality
As mentioned, seasonality plays a huge role in your cream shop’s profitability. Planning for it can make the difference between a smooth cash flow and scrambling to survive.
If you don’t plan, your business expenses (rent, equipment leases, staffing) stay the same while customers thin out. An ice cream shop that makes $40,000 in July might only make $12,000 in January.
To avoid this, make sure to track last year’s monthly sales, so you know which are your lean months and adjust your budget. This means cutting back on part‑time staff or ordering less bulk mix‑ins before winter hits.
Some operators even close from November through February to save on utilities, labor, and supplies. Others still stay open, banking on brand loyalty and alternate offerings to cover costs. An ice cream shop in a mild-climate area might stay open all winter, using a smaller holiday staff and reduced hours to protect profit margins.
If you want to remain open during the colder months, you can create a limited-edition winter menu. Add warm treats like hot fudge sundaes, affogatos, or seasonal floats, like hot chocolate with a scoop of vanilla ice cream. These items use your existing equipment and bring in extra dollars when plain scoops slow down.
You can also partner with a coffee shop or bakery business in the winter months by setting up a small scoop window inside their space. This way, you can share the cost of rent, and customers can get a sweet winter treat because you never know when the cravings come.
Product mix and pricing strategy
A simple premium offering can lift your AOV per customer. For example, you can add a small-batch gelato flight (three mini scoops of gourmet flavors) priced at $8 instead of a single $4 cone. That one menu item alone doubles that order’s value, and uses mostly the same equipment and mix‑ins you already have.
Next, create add‑ons and combos to nudge customers toward bigger spends. Offer extras like premium toppings (fresh fruit, handmade sauces) at an extra $1 each, waffle‑cone upgrade for $1.50, or combo deals, such as “Sundae + Mini Shake” for $10 instead of $7 separately.
These add-ons cost little to make one scoop, with your COGS falling around $0.75. Charging an extra dollar still nets healthy ice cream shop profit margins.
Finally, use tiered pricing to give clear choices:
- Regular scoop: $4
- Deluxe sundae (two scoops, sauce, whipped cream): $7
- Signature pint (to go, premium mix‑ins): $12
This structure shows customers the value at each level. If 30% of your guests upgrade from $4 to $7, you lift your overall AOV by over $1 per order. Over 200 daily customers, that’s an extra $200 in sales, and at a 20% net margin, $40 more profit every day.
Rent, equipment, and other operational costs
Managing rent, equipment, and other operational costs properly can make your ice cream shop profitable instead of just busy. Aim for rent that stays between 6% and 8% of your monthly sales when possible.
If your ice cream shop does $30,000 in sales, rent from $1,800 to $2,400 lets you protect your profit margins. When negotiating your lease, ask if it’s possible to do a sliding scale. This means lower base rent in winter and higher in summer, so you pay more when you earn more.
The Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) covers your ice cream base, cones, toppings, cups, and packaging. For an ice cream shop, the average restaurant cost of goods sold may be around 18% to 22%.
Freezers, soft‑serve machines, blenders, and POS terminals all need upkeep. Allocate around 1% to 3% of sales for equipment maintenance costs.
If you earn $30,000 monthly, budget $300 to $900 for maintenance. Set a quarterly check schedule for cleaning coils, calibrating temps, and inspecting seals to avoid costly breakdowns during the mid‑summer rush.
Then, there are costs to advertise your business, which include local restaurant marketing strategies like printing flyers, social media promotions, giveaways, and event sponsorships.
For a new ice cream shop business, budgeting 11% to 20% for marketing can help you build your brand. Once you have a solid customer base, you can dial back to 5% to 10% of sales.
Focus on targeted, cost-effective channels like social media. Encourage customers to post the flavors they tried and tag your ice cream shop. Make sure to create Instagram-worthy moments with unique presentations or decorative shop designs.
Labor scheduling and staffing
Another key cost is labor, which 31% of restaurant operators deem as their top concern, as found in our restaurant labor costs playbook. Keep labor costs around 28% to 33% of total revenue.
For ice cream shops, hiring part-time staff during peak seasons and reducing hours during slower months is a key strategy to manage your restaurant labor cost percentage.
Hire a small crew of reliable temps from May to August so you don’t pay full‑time wages year‑round. For example, bringing on two extra scoopers at $15/hour for 20 hours a week adds about $2,400 in labor cost for summer, but avoids paying that all year when sales dip.
Track your busy windows, which may be late afternoons and weekends, for an ice cream shop. Schedule more team members for that time, and fewer during slow weekday mornings.
Use restaurant time clock software to track attendance and avoid overstaffing during quiet periods. Most tools provide data so you can forecast labor needs and have just enough staff to provide excellent customer service without overspending.
Then, cross‑train your staff to handle multiple roles, like scooping, register, cleanup, and basic prep. That way, you can operate with fewer people on shift without sacrificing service speed.
If one person can cover scooping and cash, you might need only three employees instead of four during mid‑week lulls.
How to forecast sales for your ice cream shop
Understanding the factors that affect the profitability of an ice cream shop is different from actually forecasting sales. To accurately project your business’s potential, you must know the formula and check your store’s performance in the past year, along with other trends that might influence your future sales.
Know the basic forecasting formula
The basic business forecasting formula is:
Total Revenue = (Avg. orders per day) × (AOV) × (Operating days/month)
Let’s say on an average weekday, you serve 150 customers with an AOV of $6 (maybe a scoop plus a topping). If you’re open 30 days in a month, plug those numbers in:
150 customers × $6 AOV × 30 days = $27,000 monthly revenue
With that monthly sales target, you can work backward. If your net profit margin is 20%, that $27,000 becomes a $5,400 profit each month.
So, if you want to hit $30,000 in sales, ask yourself: “Do I need to add 10 more customers per day, raise AOV by $0.50, or add one extra open day?”
Knowing the answer helps you adjust your business strategies. For example, you can introduce a new topping or flavor to attract 10 more customers daily.
On the other hand, if you plan to add one extra open day, consider the potential additional costs against projected revenue. Evaluate weekend hours or holiday periods when foot traffic might be higher.
Additionally, calculate potential staffing needs, equipment usage, and ingredient consumption. Factor in peak seasonal times like summer weekends or local events that could drive more customers. Check whether the extra day will genuinely increase your overall profitability or just add to operational costs.
To get the numbers, you should track your real daily customer count and AOV for two weeks. Then, calculate using the business forecasting formula.
Use data for accurate projections
Your POS system does more than collect payments. It contains data that can guide you to more accurate sales forecasts and better profit margins.
Start by pulling reports from your POS or order‑tracking system. Look at daily sales by hour and top flavors over the last six to 12 months. This will tell you which dayparts (afternoons, weekends) bring the most customers and which flavors move fastest.
Next, check historical sales data. Compare last year’s summer to this year’s. If you saw a 10% jump in July sales after adding a new seasonal flavor, factor that into your forecast. Likewise, if December sales fell off by 50% compared to August, plan staffing and inventory cuts appropriately.
Don’t forget to check the weather and season. On days above 80°F, you might see a 20% rise in ice cream shop revenue. Track local weather patterns alongside daily sales for two months and build a simple rule: “If temp >75°F, expect +X customers.” That helps you stock more cones and schedule extra team members just when you need them.
Review and adjust forecasts
You must review and adjust forecasts to keep your ice cream shop business on track to hit revenue and profit goals. Check your actual vs. forecasted sales at month’s end and identify any significant variances.
If you forecasted $27,000 in sales but only made $24,000, dig into why. Did a slow week or equipment downtime affect performance? Or did you have fewer customers?
Next, update your model with fresh data. Swap in the real average orders per day and AOV from last month. For example, if you served 140 customers instead of 150 at $5.50 AOV, your new forecast is:
140 × $5.50 × 30 = $23,100
That tells you to adjust staffing, inventory, or promotions to close the gap next month.
Also, factor in one‑off events. If a local fair boosted sales by 20% in June, note that as a temporary spike, not your baseline. Remove that bump when planning July unless you know the fair returns.
What ice cream shops earn the most money?
Ice cream shops fall into subcategories. There are franchises, those that are independently owned, and ice cream trucks. These types of ice cream shops earn the most money because of their unique business models and strategic positioning.
Independent ice cream shops
Independent ice cream shops often top the earnings chart because they can charge premium prices for handcrafted flavors and unique experiences. Take Boom Town Creamery in Oklahoma City.
The company focuses on handmade specialty ice cream in 24 unique flavors. Their premium offerings allow them to charge higher prices, often $5 to $7 per scoop.
With no franchise fees, you keep more of each dollar you earn, but you also create and run all your marketing. That means local ads, social posts, and community events must be on you.
For independent ice cream shops to succeed, you must develop signature flavors that can’t be found elsewhere, like Boom Town’s “Carmelita Crumble” or “Cherry Goat.”
Be strategic about pricing as well. If your cost per scoop is $1, test premium menu items at $2 to $3 more than your base price.
Ice cream franchises
Running ice cream business franchises like Baskin‑Robbins, Dairy Queen, or Jeremiah’s Italian Ice means you tap into national awareness and proven systems. But franchise fees and royalties will cut into your ice cream shop’s profit margins.
For example, Baskin‑Robbins units average about $521,000 in annual revenue (AUV) per location, with operating profit margins near 15%, which is roughly $78,000 profit before owner pay, based on a 15% margin of $521,000.
Meanwhile, Dairy Queen Grill & Chill locations report $1.43 million in average gross sales, though initial investment runs $1.1 million to $1.85 million plus 4% to 5% royalties.
If you’re eyeing a franchise, calculate your true margins. Subtract royalty (4% to 6%), advertising fees (2% to 5%), and local rent and labor costs from gross sales to see your net.
Compare brand lift against fees as well. If a franchise’s average sales are $520,000 but you pay 6% royalties ($31,000) plus 5% ad fees ($26,000), you’ll need strong sales to justify those costs.
Franchises can make you money, but your ice cream shop’s profit depends on balancing higher revenue potential against ongoing fees. Crunch the numbers, negotiate where you can, and use the brand’s reach to drive consistent sales.
Ice cream trucks/carts
Mobile ice cream trucks and carts give you a lower‑cost entry point and the ability to chase crowds. Mister Softee might be the biggest name when it comes to this type of ice cream shop, but local independent carts can perform just as well by leveraging unique and fun food truck ideas.
Because you can move to where customers are, you can capture events, parks, or busy street corners. That flexibility helps you maximize sales during peak times. If there’s a festival or a sunny weekend, you follow the crowd, not a fixed location.
On average, ice cream trucks and carts pull in $200 to $400 on a busy day. To get the most profit, map high-traffic spots, like schools, parks, and beaches, and create a rotating weekly route.
Track daily sales by location to see where you make the most per hour. Make sure to adjust your menu for speed, too. Focus on pre‑packaged novelties and simple cones to keep service fast and labor costs low.
Rolled or gourmet/artisan shops
Rolled and gourmet ice cream shops can command top dollar and a ton of buzz if you’re ready to invest in the equipment and know‑how. OddFellows Ice Cream in New York and Salt & Straw in Portland both built followings by offering creative, made‑to‑order experiences.
A single rolled ice cream “flight” or artisan sundae can sell for $10 to $12, compared to $5 to $6 for a basic scoop, lifting your AOV and overall ice cream shop revenue.
These ice cream shops rely on specialty equipment, like a cold plate for rolled ice cream or high‑end gelato machines, to deliver consistent quality. That upfront cost (often $5,000 to $15,000 per station) pays off if you hit the right price points and volume.
For example, if you serve 100 customers a day at an average of $10, you’ll gross $3,000 daily or $90,000 monthly, even if your net profit margins tighten to 15% to 20% after higher COGS and labor.
The real power comes from social media. When customers share your visually stunning creations, like your shop’s rolled “cookie monster” bowl or a seasonal lavender‑honey sundae, you get free marketing that drives foot traffic.
Make the most of this by creating an Instagrammable menu item each month. Plan for seasonal flavors that photograph well. Track which posts get the most engagement and offer a limited-time discount to turn viewers into customers.
Scoop up those profits
Knowing your numbers is key to running a successful ice cream shop business. Understand what impacts your revenue and forecast sales to build a place where your community can always stop for a sweet treat.
Spend less on tedious tasks and more time growing your ice cream shop with 7shifts. As a restaurant scheduling tool, it helps you manage your team, track peak hours, and schedule smarter, especially during those busy summer rushes.
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Rebecca Hebert, Sales Development Representative
Rebecca Hebert
Sales Development Representative
Rebecca Hebert is a former restaurant industry professional with nearly 20 years of hands-on experience leading teams in fast-paced hospitality environments. Rebecca brings that firsthand knowledge to the tech side of the industry, helping restaurants streamline their operations with purpose-built workforce management solutions. As an active contributor to expansion efforts, she’s passionate about empowering restaurateurs with tools that genuinely support their day-to-day operations.
