Food Runner archive

New year, new shift!

For diners, January is slow. For operators, it’s strategy season. It’s the month to rebuild, refresh, and make the changes you actually want to stick before the year ramps up. The work you do now becomes the difference between staying ahead and playing catch-up all year.

And because a solid plan needs good intel, we’re breaking down the trends that will shape 2026—how diners are spending, what’s rising, what’s slowing down, and where operators can find real opportunities.

	What’s cooking in 2026 (food edition)
	The rise of restaurant groups & micro-restaurants
	Niche tips for niche operators

BY THE NUMBERS

55% Percentage of U.S. customers expecting to spend more dining out in 2026.

10 Average number of times Americans plan to dine out per month in 2026.

THE MORE YOU KNOW

	The best month for cost control: A slower January means you finally have breathing room. Fewer covers = more time to review COGS, renegotiate vendor contracts, and reset systems before things pick up.
	Dips in staff morale to come: While January may be a slump, the real dip in team morale may actually hit in February. Use this month for team check-ins, training refreshers, and setting the tone for the year.
	POS data may get a bit… questionable: Wacky weather, shifting hours, and post-holiday chaos may make comps unreliable. The new year isn’t the time to panic over fluctuations—use it to clean up reports and reset baselines.
	The time for quiet menu price changes: With food-cost inflation expected to climb in 2026, small menu adjustments early on may be less noticeable to guests than mid-year jumps.
	Hiring quirks to make note of: The holiday hangover hits staffing, too. Schedules get messy, people shift roles, and turnover might just tick up heading into the new year. If the applicant pool feels thin, use this month to cross-train, tighten roles, and keep your MVPs engaged.

IN THE NEWS

The average family can expect to pay nearly $1,000 more for food this year––at least in Canada.

Dalhousie University’s 2026 Food Price Report forecasts a 4 to 6% jump in food prices next year. And prices have gone up 27% over the last five years. So if it feels like every checkout total is getting higher… it’s because it is.

Of course, restaurants aren’t dodging any of this. Prices are rising for a whole mix of reasons—trade tensions with the U.S., labor market shifts, policy changes, currency pressure, climate change—the works.

Beef is getting hit the hardest. Ongoing droughts are making it more expensive to feed cattle, and ranchers are shrinking their herds, leaving less inventory on both sides of the border. With steak becoming a luxury item, more households are shifting to chicken… but underproduction (and avian flu) means chicken prices are set to climb too.

And coffee lovers (or coffee shop operators), brace yourselves: extreme weather is messing with Arabica yields around the world, which means your fix is about to cost more.

REALLY BIG INSIGHT

Menu engineering may be an always-on kinda project, but if there’s ever a time to shake things up (maybe due to the high food costs), it’s the start of the year. To help, Delish (and Yelp) say these five trends are on the rise:

🍛 Indian and Asian influence: Indian cuisine is having a moment, with searches for regional dishes, tiffin services, and restaurants like Semma and Gymkhana on the rise. Bonus: black sesame, a popular flavor in Asian culture, is sneaking onto everything from coffee to croissants, bringing nutty bitterness to menus.

🍬 Foreign treats go mainstream: Global desserts are trending hard. Searches for Mexican bakeries are up over 1,000%, with conchas and tres leches cakes taking center stage. Other trending searches include ‘Swedish candy’ (up 476%) and ‘BUBS Swedish Candy’ (up 610%).

🍞 Sourdough stays winning: Taylor Swift called it, we’re still in our sourdough era. While it may be a long-time tradition, it’s clear this trend isn’t going anywhere. Expect to see innovative sourdough flavors—like funfetti—and unexpected twists, like pizza and croissants.

🥤 Sip outside the box: Two drinks on the rise: the Sarti spritz (searches up 8,500%) and another fan favorite from Asia, matcha. Beyond lattes, matcha is showing up in creative concoctions like guava, horchata, and banana-infused drinks.

🍴 Buffet comeback: All-you-can-eat is making a serious comeback. From traditional buffets to sushi, hot pot, and Korean BBQ, it’s clear diners love the freedom to pile their plates high (and try a little bit of everything).

FreshDirect (New York’s online grocer) also revealed its list of top food trends for 2026:

• Sweet + spicy (swicy) flavors
• Artisanal water
• Matcha (again!)
• Locally sourced products (aka: Made in the U.S.)
• *Extra* buzzy cocktails
• Chef products (think: Momofuku’s chili crunch)

DEBATABLE

Another big trend for operators? Restaurant groups > restaurant chains.

There’s a good chance that the cool new ‘independent’ spot you tried last week is actually part of a growing restaurant group. According to one CBC source, data shows that between 2020 and 2024, smaller chains and independent restaurants (which include restaurant groups) grew more than twice as fast as large chains within Canada.

On the business side, there are a few pros to this:

💸 Buying power: Bigger orders = better pricing and higher margins.

🤝 Shared resources: HR, marketing, payroll, and even commissary kitchens cut costs and boost consistency.

🔐 Risk protection: If one concept slows down, others can carry the load.

👤 Staff growth: Team members can move between concepts or launch new ones without leaving the company.

📍 Market dominance: Multiple concepts in one area help groups quietly own a neighbourhood.

But the cons? Diners might be getting the short end of the stick:

🔄 Homogenization: At a certain size, even “independent” concepts can start to feel the same.

🏢 Corporate creep: Growth—especially with private equity—can dull creativity.

💔 Less indie charm: Some diners prefer truly standalone spots and may feel misled.

As the country gets more diverse, it’s clear diners want to try new things—not just stick to familiar favorites. Restaurant groups are one way to feed that demand, offering variety while still enjoying the perks of scale.

RESTAURANT HEADLINES

Speaking of restaurant types on the rise, we’ve got one more: micro-restaurants.

All over the industry, chefs are downsizing on purpose—ditching big dining rooms for tiny, hyper-focused spaces where they can cook exactly what they want.

Take Chef Eva Chin. After years in high-profile kitchens, she realized the bigger the restaurant, the further she got from the food. So she opened Yan Dining Room, a 26-seat back-room “private kitchen” inspired by Hong Kong’s si fong choy—the tradition of chefs cooking intimate meals in small hidden spaces. It’s part restaurant, part test kitchen, and entirely hands-on: she preps, cooks, and finishes every dish herself.

And she’s not alone. Four-seat tasting counters, omakase shops hidden in storefronts, farm-to-table rooms the size of living rooms… micro-restaurants are popping up everywhere. And the perks are lower overhead, total creative freedom, and guests who want connection, not just a table turn.

But tiny doesn’t mean easy. Eva points to the real challenges: finding staff who can handle the intensity, rising food and labor costs, and the realities of operating in tight, aging spaces.

Still, for the right type of operator, this type of restaurant might just make sense.

STORIES FROM THE FLOOR

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